Anthony Chimente – Arabian Peninsula Institute Fellow
Missteps Toward Diplomacy
Spectators and analyst argue that peace appears on the horizon in Yemen based on Omani facilitated diplomatic efforts aimed to reinvigorate talks between AL-Houthis and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabi (KSA) in Riyadh at the invitation of the Saudi Crown Prince on September 17th 2023.To be sure, the joint statement issued by the U.S. Secretary of State and Gulf Cooperation Council foreign minsters lauded “Saudi Arabia’s sustained efforts to encourage Yemeni-Yemeni dialogue.” The Kingdom’s primary partners in the region were unaware of the talks and despite welcoming statements from the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), the Southern Transitional Council (STC), and United Arab Emirates (UAE), there are private concerns of marginalization expressed regarding the path towards peace.
Currently, the Kingdom appears to be taking a fresh new approach to negotiations and is pushing for unity, alongside the Islamic Republic of Iran which is crucial. The question brings to light as to whether or not the push for unity will help mend the deep-rooted fragmented nature of governance or generate more fissures. At the end of the day, the Kingdom’s endeavors are only likely to embolden the AL-Houthis and sew the seeds for the further fracturing of the embattled political entity that is Yemen.
Thus far, negotiations have been confined to the KSA and AL- Houthis, absent any other organization such the STC or the PLC in addition to the Emiratis. In this light, KSA is attempting to reach a negotiated agreement with AL-Houthis that includes a cease-fire agreement and abides by AL-Houthi demands; the reopening of ports and Sana’a International Airport, payment of public wages under Houthi rule from oil income, a timeframe for foreign forces to leave combat, and a reconstruction plan.
A lasting peace is unlikely to result from the current negations. In fact, it might even witness the resignation from all sides a party to negotiations given the fractured nature of Yemen is a staple of the political landscape and the only viable option is a political entity conforming to pre-1990 borders. In this context, KSA, might be content with a Northern dominated AL-Houthi territory co-sharing power with the PLC so long as the terrorist organization refrains from directly attacking KSA territory, particularly at the behest of Tehran. At the same time, all indicators point to the Kingdom striving to salvage a unified Yemen and is thus concurrently battling the UAE for control of the South in a regional dynamic of the conflict.
Battle for the South
For any sustainable and longstanding peace, negotiations must be inclusive of Yemenis across the broad. This, however, is farfetched and a two-state solution is more feasible to manifest. There is currently a multiplicity of players involved in the Yemen conflict all of whom have something to gain from favorable negotiations. The STC is one of, if not the most prominent political, and military forces in South Yemen, owing to the May 4-8 meetings held in Aden that coalesced the nine AL-Hirak movements under one umbrella and set aside the grievances manifesting from the 2019 Riyad Agreement. The Emirati supported STC and associated military forces have emerged as the most important political and prominent military figures in the South, with an expressed charter to establish a unified democratic South Yemen state.
At the same time, the KSA is fomenting disunity in the South in a larger struggle against the Emirati-backed STC. Riyadh hosted the Governor of Hadramout and other prominent Hadrami officials to consolidate a political entity with the ability to confront the Emirati-backed STC called The Hadrami National Council (HNC) on June 20 2003. However, the nascent council will face challenges to foment wide-spread support because the group is comprised of the remnants of AL-Islah, General People’s Congress (GPC) and members of the powerful AL-Kathiri tribe, although the tribal allegiances remain divided and the current STC spokesman is an AL-Kathiri tribesmen. The political makeup of the HNC generates mistrusts amongst Southern Yemenis, who view the organization as a Saudi-backed Northern entity intending to dominate the South, especially based on the background and affiliations of the HNC membership. Hadramout is a national security priority for the KSA, who shares a porous border, gateway to the Arab sea, and is the governorate with the largest oil and gas reserves in the country.
The Saudi Ambassador to Yemen is charged with organizing and dispersing payments to the council members. Most notably, Faraj Salmin Al-Bahsani, former governor of Hadramout who helped develop and train the Hadrami Elite Forces, boycotted the meetings in Riyadh upon becoming a Vice President of the STC bringing with him the Hadhrami Elite Forces. The situation is the same in Shebwa where the Sons and Tribes Alliance disengaged from the Emirati-backed STC and have thrown support behind HNC aspirations for independence. At the same time, the Shebwa Elite Forces remain under the auspice of the STC. The formation of the two organizations in Hadramout and Shebwa alongside support for the PLC demonstrate the KSA efforts to push back against the STC and maintain influence in the eastern and southern environs of Yemen to establish unity in Yemen.
Reality on the Ground
Head of the PLC Dr. Rashid Alimi delivered a scathing speech at the recent United Nations General Assembly, blaming the international community and regional actors as stalwarts of peace and part of the protracted conflict. While Dr. Alimi praised “the solidarity and unified position of the international community in support of constitutional legitimacy, Yemen’s sovereignty and independence, its territorial integrity, and non-interference in its internal affairs,” the leaders’ sentiments remain a far-cry from the reality on the ground, where the Iranian-backed AL-Houthis control 70% of the population and the STC has emerged as the strongest purveyor of force in the South compared to other factions within the fragmented state. Importantly, Dr. Alimi turned sour and bemoaned that “the peace file has remained stagnant, despite the concessions and initiatives made by the Yemeni government in support of this path.” Of course, the international community has continually failed to implement a lasting peace in Yemen over the course of the 10-year internecine conflict. This brings into question whether or not Yemen will emerge as a unified state opposed to existing as a fractured political entity. Indeed, the STC striving for Southern unity and the PLC have thus far remained sidelined from AL-Houthi-Saudi negotiations. Confounding matters is the fact that each member of the PLC commands his own militia. Security sector reform remains a far cry from reality given the monopolies of violence and fragmented nature of the Yemen polity. At the end of the day, the most likely outcome and the only solution to restore stability to Yemen is through decentralization and enabling governorates to carry out the task of governing themselves. Otherwise, the conflict will proceed unabetted and Yemen will remain in the midst of protected conflict for the foreseeable future. We will witness waves of violence and conflict if the Saudi-led Coalition Forces decided to leave Yemen (Yemeni diplomat)